Sungwook Jung

KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering, Vol. 12, No. 9, pp. 387-398, Sep. 2023
https://doi.org/10.3745/KTSDE.2023.12.9.387,   PDF Download:
Keywords: Deep Learning Algorithms, Number of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases, Search Term Frequency Data, Time-Series Data
Abstract

The COVID-19 outbreak has significantly impacted human lifestyles and patterns. It was recommended to avoid face-to-face contact and over-crowded indoor places as much as possible as COVID-19 spreads through air, as well as through droplets or aerosols. Therefore, if a person who has contacted a COVID-19 patient or was at the place where the COVID-19 patient occurred is concerned that he/she may have been infected with COVID-19, it can be fully expected that he/she will search for COVID-19 symptoms on Google. In this study, an exploratory data analysis using deep learning models(DNN & LSTM) was conducted to see if we could predict the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases by summoning Google Trends, which played a major role in surveillance and management of influenza, again and combining it with data on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. In particular, search term frequency data used in this study are available publicly and do not invade privacy. When the deep neural network model was applied, Seoul (9.6 million) with the largest population in South Korea and Busan (3.4 million) with the second largest population recorded lower error rates when forecasting including search term frequency data. These analysis results demonstrate that search term frequency data plays an important role in cities with a population above a certain size. We also hope that these predictions can be used as evidentiary materials to decide policies, such as the deregulation or implementation of stronger preventive measures.

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