Lee Jung Il

KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering, Vol. 12, No. 6, pp. 251-258, Jun. 2023
https://doi.org/10.3745/KTSDE.2023.12.6.251,   PDF Download:
Keywords: Peak Load Prediction, Artificial neural network, Deep Learning, Hyper Parameter Optimization
Abstract

It is necessary to predict peak load accurately in order to supply electric power and operate the power system stably. Especially, it is more important to predict peak load accurately in winter and summer because peak load is higher than other seasons. If peak load is predicted to be higher than actual peak load, the start-up costs of power plants would increase. It causes economic loss to the company. On the other hand, if the peak load is predicted to be lower than the actual peak load, blackout may occur due to a lack of power plants capable of generating electricity. Economic losses and blackouts can be prevented by minimizing the prediction error of the peak load. In this paper, the latest deep learning model such as TCN is used to minimize the prediction error of peak load. Even if the same deep learning model is used, there is a difference in performance depending on the hyper-parameters. So, I propose methods for optimizing hyper-parameters of TCN for predicting the peak load. Data from 2006 to 2021 were input into the model and trained, and prediction error was tested using data in 2022. It was confirmed that the performance of the deep learning model optimized by the methods proposed in this study is superior to other deep learning models.

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