Yu Jin Oh , Yu Seop Kim

The KIPS Transactions:PartB , Vol. 14, No. 7, pp. 531-540, Dec. 2007
10.3745/KIPSTB.2007.14.7.531,   PDF Download:

Abstract

In this research, we proposed a two-phase hybrid stock price forecasting model with cointegration tests and artificial neural networks. Using not only the related stocks to the target stock but also the past information as input features in neural networks, the new model showed an improved performance in forecasting than that of the usual neural networks. Firstly in order to extract stocks which have long run relationships with the target stock, we made use of Johansen's cointegration test. In stock market, some stocks are apt to vary similarly and these phenomenon can be very informative to forecast the target stock. Johansen's cointegration test provides whether variables are related and whether the relationship is statistically significant. Secondly, we learned the model which includes lagged variables of the target and related stocks in addition to other characteristics of them. Although former research usually did not incorporate those variables, it is well known that most economic time series data are depend on its past value. Also, it is common in econometric literatures to consider lagged values as dependent variables. We implemented a price direction forecasting system for KOSPI index to examine the performance of the proposed model. As the result, our model had 11.29% higher forecasting accuracy on average than the model learned without cointegration test and also showed 10.59% higher on average than the model which randomly selected stocks to make the size of the feature set same as that of the proposed model.

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